Latest updates from British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) on US Tariffs. Business West is one of the largest Chambers of Commerce in the UK, and we are working closely with the BCC on this.
Tariffs Loom Large As Growth Forecasts Cut (22 April 2025)
Responding to the latest IMF forecasts for the UK and Global economies, William Bain, Head of Trade Policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, said:
“The downgrades for both the UK and global economy should come as no surprise to anyone. Businesses are under no illusion that this year will be tough, and sustained growth is likely to be elusive.
“Firms were already facing into a wall of higher domestic costs, including the national insurance rise, before the US unleashed its explosive tariff proposals.
“But there is strong support for the Government’s approach to continue negotiation and not immediately retaliate. The US has been open to talks and the signals that a deal can be reached are promising.
“Firms also don’t want to have all their eggs in one basket and are keen to see closer trading relationships with the EU and the Indo-Pacific region.
“There is no denying the outlook remains clouded with uncertainty. As retaliatory moves by other countries escalate, the prospects of a global trade war and wider economic fallout are increasing.
“But talk of recession remains premature, it is by no means certain. The government must do all it can to boost business confidence by providing practical support around infrastructure projects, reforming business rates and cutting red tape in the right areas.
“It must also stick firmly to its pledge of no further tax rises for business in the autumn budget and instead consider all its fiscal options.”
More information on the IMF forecasts
US tariffs explainer (22 April 2025)
BCC has created a FAQ guide and US tariffs explainer zone on its website to help exporters get the information they need. If you have a question about US tariffs, you might find the answer in this FAQ area, so take a look.
Increased export volatility ahead of tariffs (16 April 2025)
- Only a fifth (21%) of SME exporters saw increased overseas sales in Q1 of 2025
- More than a quarter (27%) said their exports had declined, with over half (53%) seeing no change.
- Advanced orders fared no better, as 20% saw these rise while 28% reported a decline.
- The Trade Confidence Outlook, conducted by the BCC’s award-winning Insights Unit, is a survey of just over 1,800 UK SME exporters.
It shows the percentage of SME exporters reporting increased exports remained depressed ahead of the introduction of US tariffs. Overall, 21% of SME exporters reported an increase in export sales, while 27% reported a decrease and 53% reported no change. The position for advance orders was even less optimistic with 20% of SMEs reporting an increase, 52% no change, and 28% a decrease. SME exporters are consistently more likely to report decreased exports compared to before the pandemic and Brexit.
In Q2 2018, only 14% of SME exporters reported a decrease in overseas sales, in Q1 2025 it stands at 26%.
By contrast, domestic demand for SME exporters remains consistently more buoyant, with 28% reporting an increase in domestic sales in Q1 2025, against 21% for overseas sales.
SME manufacturers are more likely to report increased overseas sales, with 24% reporting a rise in exports. Whereas just 19% of SME services exporters said they saw sales rise. But services show more stability with 24% reporting a decrease and 57 no change. This compares to 31% of manufacturers experiencing a decline in sales and 45% reporting no change.
The picture for advance export orders showed no improvement, with 22% of SME manufacturers reporting an increase, and 19% of SME services exporters.
William Bain, Head of Trade Policy at the BCC, said:
“This data does not paint a rosy picture for exports ahead of the imposition of US tariffs. Although it is inevitable that uncertainty about US actions may well have influenced the SME export trade at the start of the year.
“It is also likely that manufacturers fared better than services in Q1 as US customers looked to stock up on goods ahead of tariffs coming in.
“We believe the Government has adopted the right strategy for tariffs of negotiation not retaliation, and the signals from the White House are there is a deal to be done.
“It is also right to pursue a closer trading relationship with the EU and to point businesses towards the burgeoning opportunities in the Indo-Pacific region.
“But the upcoming Trade Strategy must do more to provide firms with support around exports, including access to finance.
“Over 40 per cent of Chamber members export due to the framework of support we place around them. This level of advice, training and guidance needs to be replicated across the land.
“The next few years will be pivotal for the UK’s export success for decades to come. It is crucial the Trade Strategy puts us in the best possible place to deal with the challenges and take full advantage of the opportunities.”
UK tariff pause will help business and consumers (13 April 2025)
Responding to the news that the UK Global Tariff is being paused on dozens of products, William Bain, Head of Trade Policy at the British Chambers of Commerce said:
“Tariffs are an additional cost burden that often have to be absorbed by firms or picked up by consumers and manufacturers. Given the current uncertainty in global trade, these extended reductions in import duties on everyday consumer goods from orange juice to seafood are welcome and could help reduce the cost of living.
“Having greater certainty on prices for these everyday food and consumer products, as well as some items that will be used to make other UK goods, will also help keep inflation under control, sustain economic growth and improve living standards for the British people in this age of uncertainty in global trade.”
Business welcomes export support package amid global uncertainty (13 April 2025)
Responding to the announcements from the Chancellor and Business and Trade Secretary to support UK exporters, William Bain, Head of Trade Policy at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said:
“The BCC called last week for enhanced credit and financial support through UK Export Finance and the British Business Bank to cushion the effects upon UK exporting firms. Traders will welcome news that the Chancellor and Business and Trade Secretary have responded positively to the actions we proposed to help thousands of UK firms who export to the Unites States.
“Increasing the credit capacity of UK Export Finance by up to £20bn and loan facilities of up to £2million through the British Business Bank Growth Guarantee Scheme will provide much needed cashflow support now for exporting firms affected by the impact of new tariffs. We also welcome that £10bn of the greatly increased UK Export Finance lending capacity will specifically support firms experiencing financial pressures right now.
“In our survey of more than 600 businesses last week, the clear message from firms is that negotiation not retaliation is the best way forward. Firms also told us they want government to get tariff relief in terms of our trade with the US, remove unnecessary trade barriers in our trade relationship with the EU, and to work with our partners in the Indo-Pacific region to expand opportunities for UK trade and investment.
“A calm, clear headed approach by government to trade negotiations together with a strong package of increasing the finance available to affected firms is the way forward. That will back the resilience UK exporters are showing in these uncertain times in global trade.”
Find out more about the Growth Guarantee Scheme
Exports to US rose ahead of tariffs (11 April 2025)
Export Growth
UK goods exports had a second consecutive month of growth, powered by a rise in exports to the US ahead of the introduction of tariffs on steel and aluminium products on 12 March. Exports to the US rose for the third consecutive month – by a further £0.4bn in February to £5.9bn in value terms.
But overall trade growth slowed during February. Removing the effects of inflation, total UK exports in goods rose by 1.1%, compared to 3.5% in January 2025. Services exports were relatively flat, with a modest 0.24% rise in volumes. This is down from growth of 2.3% in January.
Non-EU goods exports rose by 2.5% in February, while sales to the EU fell by 0.4%, compared with 1.3% growth the previous month
Services Imports Fall
Total services import volumes into the UK fell by 0.8% in February. Goods imports from the EU rose by 7% in volume terms, while those from non-EU countries experienced a less steep increase, rising by 3%.
Responding to the latest ONS data on trade, William Bain, Head of Trade Policy at the BCC, said:
“There are clear signs that UK firms increased goods exports to the US ahead of the introduction of tariffs. Data for the past three months shows a 23% increase in the value of goods flowing from the UK across the Atlantic.
“Looking more widely, while overall exports grew in February, the rate of growth slowed substantially. It was a static month for our international trade in services, and goods exports to the EU fell. This was counterbalanced to a degree by 2.5% month-on-month growth, in volume terms, to rest of the world.
“This muted trade performance reflects the growing global uncertainty on trading conditions. With the effects of new US tariffs still reverberating around the world, UK firms will need resilience and agility to respond.
“Securing a deal with the US, removing trade barriers with the EU, and maximising potential in Indo-Pacific markets will be key to cushioning the negative impacts of the sweeping new US tariffs.”
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