Has Bristol peaked? Reflections on city's growing pains

On first reading the ‘have we reached peak Bristol?’ headline for this discussion, images of social media posts about defining (but instantly forgettable) moments came to mind. 

Think of angry fans demanding a football manager’s sacking after he’s just won their club’s first trophy in six years as ‘peak 2023’. (This happened, by the way).

‘Have we reached peak Bristol?’ doesn’t point to a meme though. It asks a big question about whether the city’s continued economic success is assured in the face of mounting pressures. City mayor Marvin Rees set out those pressures in his ‘state of the city’ address the previous evening. 

The ‘peak Bristol’ panel discussion at The Watershed, a Festival of the Future City’s event presented with Business West, highlighted how Bristol is nationally a standout economic performer alongside London, Cambridge, Brighton and Edinburgh. 

“It has become a particularly successful economy over the last 10 years, [and has made] lots of progress at the aggregate level,” said Centre for Cities chief executive Andrew Carter, speaking about the headline economic figures.

He said that, in the last decade, Bristol’s population grew by 10%. At the same time, job numbers increased by 20% and average wages rose by more than 30%. It’s a city where businesses want to be, with a highly qualified, well skilled workforce and two leading universities.  

But despite this dynamism and success, there are deep seated problems which come at a cost for people who live and work here. Cool restaurants, balloons over the skyline and well-paid jobs are all fantastic. But rising housing costs, painful commuting and long-standing deprivation in parts of the city tell a less comfortable human story. 

This is the backdrop to the ‘peak Bristol’ discussion. The key questions for panellists included: 

• How can we secure a prosperous future for Bristol’s citizens and businesses? 
• Can Bristol and the West of England be the answer to the challenges facing the nation, rather than sometimes appearing to be a problem?  

Here follows some key points from that discussion.

peak_bristol_panel_1.png

Peak productivity? 

Resolution Foundation research director Lindsay Judge said that despite experiencing strong levels of employment, Bristol’s productivity growth – or the increase in value of work delivered by people in the city – is poor. 

“If you look at the change in productivity from 2002 to 2019, Bristol’s growth was 1%,” she added. 

Her team looked at how this is supported by investment that makes it easy for people to get into and around city centres easily and cheaply. In a statement that probably surprised no one in the room, she explained that Bristol didn’t score well on this measure.  

She also spoke about austerity constraining local leaders’ capacity to deliver what their cities need, and the resulting impact on public trust. This goes beyond potholes and bin collections, as 20,000 people on Bristol’s housing waiting list demonstrate.  

Peak transport pain

Bristol’s productivity problems feed into discussions about and how we get into and across the city.

Although we face a ‘here and now’ challenge around bus reliability, mass transit is the ‘big ticket’ subject of a live public debate between the region’s leaders. 

Our panel discussion came a day after the National Infrastructure Commission published its 30-year plan, which recommended mass transit for Bristol. 

Richard Bonner, Atkins’ market director for buildings and places, non-executive director of Business West, and chair of the West of England Local Enterprise Partnership, supports investment in mass transit for Bristol to meet the city’s need for better public transport. 

“[The report says that] Bristol is one of four cities that need urgent investment,” he said. 

“We need mass transit. We have a strategy where we understand the technical solutions. We’ve got work to do.”

Peak housing headache 

One ‘symptom of success’ for Bristol has been soaring house prices hitting the city over the last two decades, Andrew Carter added. 

Average house prices in Bristol now stand at 12 times household incomes. Renters also face rising costs, with recent reports saying the city is the UK’s most expensive place to rent outside London.  

Marvin Rees’ administration has helped provide more than 12,500 new and affordable homes, and many more are in the pipeline. But the problem facing those struggling with high housing costs today isn’t going away.

“Housing is insane,” said former President of Bristol Chamber of Commerce and Initiative Jaya Chakrabarti, adding that many people run out of money at the end of the month and can’t go to work.

“It’s not just cost of living, it’s cost of working now,” she added. 

Peak partnerships 

These challenges pose questions about collaboration at all levels across the city. 

How can businesses, community groups and the voluntary sector work together to create the ‘brilliant Bristol’ Jaya writes about in The Bristol 650 Book?

Crucially, how can leaders clearly and consistently speak for us in representing our region to government and investors? Telling our story about the West of England’s importance on the national and international stage is one key ingredient. Bringing local partners together to ensure that story is authentically shaped by them is another.

In this respect, with more devolution powers on the horizon for city regions and the role of Bristol mayor ending next year, our region’s metro mayor Dan Norris is a pivotal figure. 

“Does it work coherently together, or do [local leaders] fall out?” Andrew Carter asked about how collaboration works here. 

The panel reflected on how this requires consensus on some fundamental questions. Richard Bonner put this simply when asking: what do we want?

That’s not an easy question to answer. Having worked on narratives for places around the South West over the years, I know it’s impossible to make this work without agreement between partners on this key point. 

A personal view borne from this work: it’s not a list of important stuff or asks we’re looking for here. It’s the essence of what our region stands for and why we matter that’s key.  

So, have we reached ‘peak Bristol?’

As I write this, Bristol celebrates its 650th year as a city. Whether it’s ‘peaked’ or not, if we’ve learned anything from recent years it’s that change is inevitable.

This change is happening in everyone’s lives. How we work, travel and buy stuff is massively different today from when I set up an agency in Bristol six years ago. 

How Bristol can shape that change positively, rather than be shaped by it, is crucial to its future success.  

If our city thinks long-term and collaborates over the things it can control, like how transport works and where homes go, Bristol’s destiny remains more securely in our hands. 

If we miss this opportunity, those stuck on housing waiting lists, stranded in traffic or choking in pollution won’t thank Bristol for its failings. 

The opportunity to shape positive change is in sight. Now’s the time to take it.

Ben Lowndes is director at Distinctive Communications in Bristol. You can read our interview with him here.