Global Trade in 2025: liberalisation, protectionism, and what it means for you

Fiona Parsons Business West
13 January 2025

As 2025 begins, the global trade landscape is a mix of opportunities and challenges. On one hand, recent agreements like the EU-Mercosur deal and the UK joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) signals a move towards liberalisation and co-operation. On the other, growing protectionist policies raise concerns about increased tariffs and potential barriers to trade.

 

The EU-Mercosur trade deal


After years of negotiation, the EU-Mercosur trade agreement was signed in early December 2024, and aims to foster trade between the EU and South American nations including Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay.

The deal promises tariff reductions on goods like machinery, cars, and agricultural products. For UK businesses trading indirectly with Mercosur countries via the EU, this could potentially bring new opportunities.

France and some other EU nations have raised concerns about the impact on domestic farmers and environmental standards, particularly given Brazil’s record on deforestation. The EU is set to vote on the deal sometime in 2025.

The US: A return to protectionism?


Across the Atlantic, signals from the US suggest a potential shift back towards protectionism, with discussions around new tariffs on goods from key trading partners.


Impact on UK businesses:

Tariff increases could make exporting to the US more expensive, particularly for sectors like manufacturing and agriculture. Businesses should stay aware for these developments to assess potential cost implications.

What’s next:

As the US heads into a pivotal year with a new President, trade policy could remain in flux. Businesses should prepare for possible volatility in one of the UK’s largest export markets.

2025 and trade


As these developments unfold, one thing is clear, the global trade environment is evolving rapidly.

  • Liberalisation in some areas: Agreements like CPTPP and EU-Mercosur show that many regions are still committed to lowering trade barriers and fostering international co-operation.
  • Protectionism in others: Tariffs, supply chain realignments, and geopolitical tensions could create new obstacles for businesses.
     

How Business West can help


In this unpredictable environment, having the right guidance is essential.

 

  • Expertise: The Business West International Trade team closely monitors global developments, ensuring businesses stay informed and prepared.
  • Support services: From export and import documentation to trade consultancy, we offer the tools you need to adapt and thrive.
  • Events and updates: Stay tuned for our upcoming training, webinars, roundtables and resources to help you navigate the complexities of global trade in 2025.
     

The global trade landscape in 2025 is set to be both challenging and full of opportunity. Whether you're looking to expand into new markets or safeguard your current operations, the Business West International Trade team is here to guide you every step of the way.


References:


https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-reg...
https://www.politico.eu/article/what-you-need-know-eu-mercosur-trade-deal/ 
https://www.euronews.com/2025/01/06/tractors-head-towards-paris-in-prote...