New data from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has revealed a 20% drop in export activity to the Middle East as conflict escalated in March.
The findings are based on the number of certificates of origin issued by Chambers of Commerce, including Business West. These are a key customs document required, including for Arab League countries, for exporting UK goods. They are issued at the start of the export journey and as such they are a reliable proxy for trade flows.
A sharp fall in certificates indicates goods are either being delayed, rerouted or not shipped at all.
The divergence shows this is not a general slowdown in demand, but a region specific shock consistent with the escalation of conflict and disruption across key trade corridors.
Companies classified as Arab League countries for certificates of origin include Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
Steven Lynch, Director of International Trade at the British Chambers of Commerce, said:
For months, businesses have been telling us that the world is getting harder to trade in, and the data is now catching up with that reality. Routes are less reliable, costs are rising, and geopolitical risk is something firms are having to manage day to day.
Our documentation data shows a clear and immediate shock to UK trade flows linked directly to disruption across the Middle East. The fact that exports tied to Arab markets are falling far faster than elsewhere tells us this is a targeted, region specific impact, not a broad based downturn.
Firms are reporting increased delays, rerouting via longer and more expensive pathways, enduring rising insurance premiums and facing stretched lead times. For SMEs in particular, this squeezes cashflow and confidence at a time when exporting is already challenging.
There are early signs some trade may be delayed rather than permanently lost, but the operating environment has fundamentally changed. Trade must be treated as national infrastructure, exposed directly to geopolitical events, and resilience is now essential, not optional.
The BCC has set up a Diplomatic Advisory Hub, in partnership with the Foreign Office to provide UK firms with the latest intel and advice on overseas trade. Thousands of businesses have attended its webinars on the Middle East conflict to support their operations.
The BCC has also published a new report on global supply chains, which sets out a range of options to protect the UK’s trade flows during times of crisis.
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